Russia ukraine crisis: Negotiations for the sake of negotiations. Will there be a new protracted Minsk process

MOSCOW: Ukraine in the negotiations drags Russia into the new Minsk process and makes it feel guilty. At the same time, one should not expect any constructiveness from the Ukrainian side during the negotiations, says political scientist and historian Oleg Nemensky, whose interview was published by Uru

“I absolutely do not believe that the Ukrainian side can agree to constructive agreements. These negotiations will be very similar to the Minsk process. There will be small advances on some non-principled issues, sometimes some promises may be made, but there will be no real actions, ”the expert believes.

According to him, the task of the Ukrainian side is “poster”. Nemensky pointed out that the goal of Kyiv is to demonstrate that it does not give up anything fundamentally, but is open to peaceful initiatives. At the same time, at this stage, the Ukrainian leadership will simply participate in negotiations for the sake of negotiations, and not in order to achieve a new system of coexistence.

In this case, the question arises - why is Russia participating in these negotiations at all?

According to Nemensky, this is due to the fact that if Russia refuses Ukraine these negotiations, then the whole world will reproach her for not wanting to make contact with the opposite side and not giving her the opportunity to end the conflict peacefully.

“Therefore, Russia should participate in the negotiations, but it should not believe that it is now possible to agree on anything with the Ukrainians,” he added.

Information front of the special operation

Political scientist Nemensky drew attention to the fact that Russia has many problems in terms of information warfare. “Whatever decision Russia makes, in the information war it can always be turned in its favor. Participates in negotiations - it means that she is weak, does not participate - she walks over corpses, regardless of anything, and rejects the hand of peace initiatives extended to her, ”he said.

At the same time, the expert stressed that the information sphere in this confrontation is still not the main thing. Russia's main task now is to achieve its goals. He pointed out that, despite the media picture, one way or another, you still need to participate in the negotiations, since the other side shows interest in this. “But it is clearly not worth pinning great hopes on these negotiations. Until the total defeat of Ukraine, which has already taken place, is obvious, it is not worth negotiating with it, ”Nemensky added.

Late operation?

The political scientist also believes that if Russia started such an operation in 2014-2015, it would be better.

“In 2014, huge opportunities were missed. Moreover, in 2014 it would be possible to resolve all issues without a major military operation simply through a clear position of the Kremlin on the approval of the Novorossiya project, appropriate signals, administrative and economic support for the South-East and the expulsion of special forces to help the elite that would implement this project. , he pointed out.

Nemensky added that if a Novorossiysk political community had formed then, it doesn’t matter if Ukraine had collapsed or if there had been a confederation, then Kyiv would not have started a war in Donbass and would have recognized Crimea.

Now, according to him, the situation is much worse: the Russian army is more prepared, but the Ukrainian army is also more prepared. All this stands out in the bloody course of the military operation.

“The problem is that those identity structures that make Russophobes out of Ukrainian citizens, under the influence of a military operation, are only strengthened, not broken. Now there are even more problems, because the military operation should be followed by denazification in the humanitarian sphere, ”the expert said.

At the same time, Nemensky does not have an exact answer how exactly to carry it out. In his opinion, it will be a long scale process. “In 2014, this would not have been required - there was only a problem with Western Ukraine,” he concluded.