EPL: Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal need to be cautious after Christmas!

LONDON: Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah will leave for the 2021 African Cup of Nations, which can make things even tougher for Liverpool. (Photo credit: Twitter @LFC)

The top six clubs in the Premier League have a tendency to face a lot of issues during Christmas time and in the first month of the next year.

The following chart represents the months in which Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspurs faced the most upsets.

Shocking results refer to losing against weaker sides. For instance: Newcastle United, Norwich City and Watford are the weakest sides this season. Any of these teams defeating the table-toppers such as Arsenal or Liverpool, then it would be considered as a shocking result.

Based on the analysis, January is the most dreadful month for the big sides. They come into the new year after playing a lot of matches at the end of December which makes things very tough for them. In the last four seasons, they have faced 11 upsets in the first month of the year.

December, April and May lie second on the list with eight upsets each. December's last two weeks are very hectic for footballers, as they are supposed to play Premier League matches continuously. This makes it hard even for the top-class players to perform at the optimum level.

April and May are at the end of the season and the players of the top six clubs have already played 40 matches in the season, on an average by then. Therefore, they are unable to perform at their optimum level.

There are no matches in June and July usually but due to the pandemic, the league was stopped for a while in the 2019-20 season, due to which the administration took the decision to play the rest of the matches in the months of June and July.

Having four upsets in the 2020 July is quite a surprising number. Through this, it could be concluded that the players of the weaker teams worked hard during the lockdown and they were able to defeat the best clubs and players in the league.

News9 zooms out a little and has a look at the pre-Christmas and post-Christmas of the big six clubs in the last four seasons.

Interestingly, there aren't many upsets before Christmas, except in the season of 2019-20. It was a unique season, due to the arrival of Covid but the 11 upsets in the league came before the pandemic in December 2019.

This signifies that the competitive balance in the league was higher in the 2019-20 season. Other than that season, the numbers tell the story that the big clubs are under a lot of pressure after Christmas and they are likely to lose matches to weaker teams.

The club that can thrive in this tenure is likely to bag the title. Clubs face more defeats after Christmas because of injury concerns and the exhaustion of their key players. Sometimes they try to replace the injured players by buying new players in the January transfer window but it's still not enough to yield the desired results.

A look at the number of upsets the top six clubs have faced in the last four seasons:

Manchester City has only been at the losing end five times in the last four seasons, against seemingly weaker teams. Interestingly, two of those defeats came against Crystal Palace, which they lost to again, this season (2021-22). The other three were against Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds United, Spurs and Newcastle United.

Since 2017, Jurgen Klopp's men have been defeated six times by the lower table teams. Four of those came in the last season (2020-21). The season in which they were without key defenders due to injury such as Virgin Van Dijk. However, the German manager still managed to register a spot in the Top 4 by the end of the season.

The Reds have been on the losing end for five times, out of the six, post-Christmas. Therefore, they need to stay careful this season, if they want to challenge for the title. Currently, they have only been beaten once but their road to the title after Christmas would be filled with obstacles.

Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah will leave for the 201 African Cup of Nations, which could make things even tougher for 2019-20 Premier League winners.

Manchester United have some serious figures. The Red Devils have lost 15 matches in the last four seasons to weaker sides. This clearly portrays that they are not the United that they once were under Sir Alex Ferguson and things definitely need to change at the 'Theatre of Dreams.

Seven of those defeats have come before Christmas, while the other eight came after Christmas. Therefore, it could be said that the Red Devils aren't affected much by the time frame. However, they can expect much better results under their new manager Ralf Ragnick post-Christmas.

The Gunners also have poor stats, they have registered 16 losses against the weaker teams in the last four seasons. Three of them came back to back in the months of November 2020 and December 2020. It was a very critical time for Arteta's Arsenal.

Seven of their losses came before Christmas, while the rest after Christmas. Considering their miserable form in the winter of 2020, they are also prone to lose points in the second half of the season.

They are doing much better in the current season. Arteta's Arsenal was undefeated in eight consecutive PL matches at one point in time but they have failed to book victories against stronger sides like Liverpool and Manchester United.

They did register a loss to Brentford at the start of the season. Keeping in mind the above stats, the Spanish manager must stay alert after December.

Thomas Tuchel Chelsea is already having issues, due to injury and Covid-19 concerns. The Blues registered 13 losses against the weaker sides, seven of them coming before Christmas.

Under the German manager, they have only lost to West Bromwich Albion in which they conceded four goals, as they were one man down. Conceding four goals has been a rare sight under the former PSG manager.

The London club Spurs also face serious issues after the start of the new year. They have witnessed nine of their twelves losses to weaker sides, after Christmas. Antonio Conte led Tottenham might be a little different this season, as the Italian manager has just taken over and his philosophies can improve them significantly.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs need to be focussed after Christmas, as they are highly likely to drop points after Christmas based on the above stats.

The upsets faced by the Top 6 clubs since the start of the 2017-18 season are listed below:

Season 2017-18

Pre-Christmas:

Aug 2017

1. Chelsea 2-3 Burnley

2. Stoke City 1-0 Arsenal

Oct 2017

1. Crystal Palace 2-1 Chelsea

2. Watford 2-1 Arsenal

Dec 2017

1. West Ham United 1-0 Chelsea

Post-Christmas

January 2018

1. Bournemouth 2-1 Arsenal

2. Swansea City 1-0 Liverpool

3. Swansea City 3-1 Arsenal

February 2018

1. Warford 4-1 Chelsea

2. Newcastle 1-0 Manchester United

March 2018

1. Brighton Hove Albion 2-1 Arsenal

April 2018

1. Newcastle 2-1 Arsenal

2. Manchester United 0-1 West Bromwich

May 2018

1. Brighton 1-0 Manchester United

2. West Bromwich 1-0 Spurs

3. Newcastle United 3-0 Chelsea

Season 2018-19

Pre-Christmas:

Aug 2018

1. Brighton 3-2 Man Utd

Sept 2018

1. Watford 2-1 Spurs

2. West Ham Utd 3-1 Man Utd

Dec 2018

1. Wolves 2-1 Chelsea

2. Southampton 3-2 Arsenal

3. City 2-3 Palace

Post-Christmas

Jan 2019

1. West ham 1-0 Arsenal

2. Newcastle Utd 2-1 Man City

3. Bournemouth 4-0 Chelsea

Feb 2019

1. Burnley 2-1 Spurs

March 2019

1. Southampton 2-1 Spurs

2. Everton 2-0 Chelsea

April 2019

1. Wolves 3-1 Arsenal

2. Wolves 2-1 Manchester United

3. Everton 4-0 Manchester United

4. Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace

5. Spurs 0-1 West Ham United

May 2019

1. Bournemouth 1-0 Spurs

2. Manchester United 0-2 Cardiff City

Season 2019-20

Pre-Christmas

Aug 2019

1. Manchester United 1-2 Crystal Palace

2. Spurs 0-1 Newcastle

Oct 2019

1. Brighton 3-0 Spurs

2. City 0-2 Wolves

3. Newcastle 0-1 Man United

Nov 2019

1. Bournemouth 1-0 United

2. Chelsea 0-1 West Ham United

Dec 2019

1. Arsenal 1-2 Brighton

2. Chelsea 0-1 Bournemouth

3. Watford 2-0 Manchester United

4. Wolves 3-2 City

Post-Christmas

Jan 2020

1. Southampton 1-0 Spurs

2. Newcastle 1-0 Chelsea

3. Man United 0-2 Burnley

Feb 2020

1. Watford 3-0 Liverpool

March 2020

1. Spurs 2-3 Wolves

June 2020

1. Brighton 2-1 Arsenal

July 2020

1. West ham 3-2 Chelsea

2. Sheffield 3-1 Spurs

3. Southampton 1-0 City

4. Sheffield 3-0 Chelsea

Season 2020-21

Pre-Christmas

Sept 2020

1. Utd 1-3 Crystal Palace

Oct 2020

1. Aston Villa 7-2 Liverpool

Nov 2020

1. Arsenal 0-3 Aston Villa

2. Arsenal 1-2 Wolves

December

1. Arsenal 0-1 Burnley

2. Wolves 2-1 Chelsea

Post-Christmas

Jan 2021

1. Southampton 1-0 Liverpool

2. Man United 0-1 Sheffield

Feb 2021

1. Liverpool 0-1 Brighton

2. Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal

3. West Ham 2-1 Spurs

March 2021

1. Liverpool 0-1 Fulham

April 2021

1. City 1-2 Leeds

May 2021

1. Leeds 3-1 Spurs

2. Spurs 1-2 Villa

3. Villa 2-1 Chelsea