TAIPEI: Taiwan’s survival is a critical factor for Australia's security, according to a new report released on Monday (Aug. 9) by the Canberra-based think tank, Lowy Institute.
The report, “Australia and the Growing Reach of China’s Military,” looks at changing security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. It analyzes the likelihood of the Australian mainland being directly threatened by China’s expanding military presence in the region.
The report describes Taiwan falling into Chinese control as the worst-case scenario for Australia. After this point, China would break through the First Island Chain. This would pressure Japan into “at least partial ‘Finlandization’” (nominally independent, but following the dictates of Beijing) forcing the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country, after which it could threaten other nations throughout the Pacific at will.
The report also warned China's next class of submarines could bring long-range cruise missiles within striking range of Australia in a matter of days after leaving bases on the South China Sea. Australia can no longer rely on isolation as protection and must prepare for worst case scenarios.
The report says the People's Liberation Army (PLA) navy’s build up is designed to “be able to eject the U.S. military from the western Pacific force.” It continued that even partial withdrawal by Washington would accelerate the current deterioration in the balance of military power, which would greatly impact the freedom of action for regional nations like Australia.
The report analyzes China’s rapidly expanding naval and air force power. It notes that long-range missiles, bombers, and blue-water naval vessels are the most strategically significant developments.
The report says these developments threaten the integrity of Australia’s sea lines of communication (SLOCs), noting, “China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade.”
Australians should be “clear-eyed enough” to recognize the coercion the Vietnam and the Philippines are currently going through “could be in store for them.” The report says while kinetic war between Australia and China is a remote possibility, it is nonetheless a “low-probability, high-consequence event.”
“China has the military and industrial potential to field a long-range power projection capacity that would dwarf anything Japan threatened Australia with during the Second World War,” the report concludes.