As tensions with Iran ease, the Israeli military is preparing to complete what it says is unfinished business — WSJ

TelAviv: uprooting Hamas from its last stronghold in the Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are taking shelter.

Israeli leaders say they intend to press ahead despite vocal opposition from the country's most important ally, the United States, which has warned that large-scale action in the Strip could cause widespread civilian casualties and disrupt humanitarian aid efforts aimed at preventing famine.

“In the coming days, we will increase military and diplomatic pressure on Hamas because it is the only way to release our hostages and achieve our victory,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday in a message to mark the Jewish holiday of Passover, which begins Monday evening.

The Israeli Air Force has struck targets in Rafah in recent days. A series of strikes on Sunday killed at least 16 Palestinians, most of them women and children, according to the Palestinian Authority's official news and information agency. The IDF said in mid-April that it had called up two reserve brigades "for operational activities on the Gaza front."

Netanyahu said that Israel plans to evacuate civilians before the operations. The army said it plans to transfer Gazans to humanitarian enclaves that will be built inside the Gaza Strip, which will include food, water, shelter and medical services.

"First, it will happen." Secondly, we will have a very narrow operational plan because it is very complex there. Third, there is a humanitarian response happening at the same time,” an Israeli security official said.

Israel is preparing to move civilians from Rafah to nearby Khan Yunis and other areas, where it plans to set up shelters with tents, food distribution centers and medical facilities such as field hospitals, according to Egyptian officials who were briefed on the Israeli plans.

Egyptian officials said that the evacuation process will last from two to three weeks and will take place in coordination with the United States, Egypt, and other Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates. They said that Israel plans to move forces to Rafah gradually, targeting areas where Israel believes Hamas leaders and fighters are hiding. They said the fighting was expected to last at least six weeks.

Israel has faced mounting international pressure to end its six-month military campaign in Gaza sparked by the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, which killed about 1,200 people on the bloodiest day for Jews since the Holocaust. More than 34,000 people have died in Gaza, according to Palestinian health authorities. The numbers do not distinguish between combatants and civilians.

The United States has pressed Israel to reconsider a large-scale push into Rafah, citing concerns for civilians as nearly two-thirds of Gaza's population is estimated to be temporarily sheltering in the city. Many have fled their homes as the Israeli army has moved south in recent months through the enclave, which is roughly the size of Washington, D.C.

“President Biden has been very clear about this: We cannot support a major military operation in Rafah,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday. Such a move "would have serious consequences" for any civilians remaining in the city. He said that Israel's war goals could be achieved by other means.

The vast majority of aid enters the Gaza Strip through two crossings near Rafah. This is also where UN agencies and other relief groups are currently located, along with most of the remaining functioning hospitals and clinics. Any interruption to aid, especially food, could have devastating repercussions. The United Nations and other international relief agencies have warned that Gaza is at risk of famine.

The United States said it would build a temporary floating dock along the Gaza coast that would allow more food, water and other emergency supplies to reach residents. The Pentagon said Monday that some U.S. Navy ships sent to build the pier have arrived in the Mediterranean and assembly of the pier could begin by the end of the month. Defense officials said the pier will be operational by the end of May. Israel assured the United States that it would provide security on the beach.

Israel says it must move against Rafah — which lies along Gaza's border with Egypt — to neutralize the military threat posed by Hamas, a terrorist organization designated by the United States. The Israeli army says it has dismantled 20 of Hamas' 24 military battalions and must uproot its remaining combat formations now in Rafah.

Any military action would also aim to expel Hamas' senior military commanders and find the remaining 129 hostages the group is holding from its October 7 attacks, many of whom are believed to be being held in Rafah. Israel also said it must cut off smuggling routes from Egypt to Gaza that provide militants with war materiel, from fuel to a 

mmunition.

But any major military incursion is also a strategic gamble, especially if a high civilian death toll erodes Israel's international standing and weakens relations with the United States. Trying to minimize civilian casualties could make the battlefield more dangerous for Israeli forces, leading to higher casualty rates.

If Israel fails to move civilians out of harm's way, "I truly believe this could be a major strategic catastrophe for Israel and create one of the major strains on the bilateral relationship that we have seen for years," said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center for Military and Political Authority at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. .

The timing of any operation remains uncertain. The Israeli army will need to deploy more forces in the Strip before moving. Earlier this month, Israel reached its lowest troop levels in the war, down to a few thousand soldiers to conduct targeted raids and patrol the main roads inside Gaza, down from a peak of more than 60,000 troops last fall.

Uncertainty over the timing of the operation hangs over Gazans sheltering in Rafah, who struggle to leave the city and where to go in a devastated strip that lacks shelter and services.

Hazer Ghanem, 22, who has been in Rafah since she left her home in Gaza City that was partially destroyed in December, said she packed clothes, documents and some food in case she needed to flee quickly.

However, it is not sure where it will go if Israel invades Rafah because there has been no clear indication from the Israeli military on whether Palestinian civilians will be allowed to return to what remains of their homes in northern Gaza.

“Everyone in Rafah is worried and all people are talking about is the ground invasion,” Ghanem said.

The incursion risks further upsetting relations with Washington after Israel's latest round of tensions with Iran helped draw the United States and other allies back. The United States led an international coalition mobilizing to Israel's defense this month when Iran launched its first-ever direct strike on Israeli territory, largely thwarting an attack that threatened to escalate fighting in the region.

An Israeli security official said that the United States and Israel meet periodically to discuss Israel's plans to evacuate civilians before the military incursion into Rafah, as well as operational plans. Last week, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met virtually with his Israeli counterpart and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Netanyahu.

“Both sides agreed on the common goal of seeing Hamas defeated in Rafah,” the White House said after the meeting. He said: "The American participants expressed their concerns about the different courses of action in Rafah, and the Israeli participants agreed to take these concerns into account and hold further discussions among the experts."

The United States urged Israel to achieve its objectives in Rafah through precision strikes and targeted raids, hoping to avoid both a high civilian toll and widespread destruction in the rest of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office and the Defense Ministry declined to comment on the bilateral talks.

Experts say Israel will not be able to destroy Hamas's four remaining brigades without invading Rafah, but the most important long-term strategic goal may be control of the Philadelphia Corridor, the narrow eight-mile strip of land that straddles the border between Gaza and Egypt. .

Israel has long said that smuggling tunnels under the border are crucial in supplying weapons and other banned items to militant groups in Gaza including Hamas. Israel relinquished control of the corridor during its withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, and Israeli action in the border area is a sensitive issue that requires coordination with Egypt.

Ofer Shila, a military analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said: “What is important is to establish a real border that will cut off Hamas’ supply lines from Sinai to Gaza.”

Shila said a large military exercise in Rafah would be problematic, both for the tunnel-laden battlefield and its humanitarian consequences.

As the last major city in Gaza not invaded by Israel, Rafah has more than tripled in size as internally displaced people have taken refuge there. Next to the border stations of Egypt and Israel, it has also rapidly developed into a hub for international organizations coordinating humanitarian response efforts.

Noha Saadawi, a 33-year-old mother of three, said there was no infrastructure anywhere else in Gaza to support more than a million displaced Palestinians. When she visited her home in Khan Yunis to inspect the damage this month, she found it destroyed.

She said she expects the Israeli operation to last for months and hopes to stay close to Rafah — in Al-Mawasi, along the Mediterranean coast. “We will stay in a tent because we have no home to go back to,” she said.