US midterm elections 2022: Biden's worries and key issues | Deep Dive

WASHINGTON: The United States is all set to hold midterm elections - polls that happen halfway through a president's four-year term - on November 8 to give Americans a chance to elect members of Congress and representatives at the state and local levels.

Like the Indian Parliament, America's Congress has 535 members who are responsible for making the law of the land. Congress is divided into two chambers, the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Senate (100 seats) is an upper house like Rajya Sabha in the Indian Parliament and the House of Representatives (435 seats) is a lower house like Lok Sabha.

This time, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third of Senate seats (35) are going to the polls.

Will President Joe Biden's Democratic Party continue to maintain its ultra-narrow majority in Congress or will Americans bring Donald Trump's Republican Party back? The odds seem in the Republicans' favour as even after two years in power, Biden's Democratic Party is still struggling to win the public's trust as the president's approval rating sinks lower than Trump's.

While public dissatisfaction is palpable, the preliminary polls only emphasise that the Trump wave is not over yet. Democrats may still hope to turn the tables and stay in power, but there are challenges and these challenges need a strong game plan with not just big promises but actual work on the ground to win the trust of the general public in America. Are the Democratic Party's days numbered? Will Trump's party swing back sooner than expected? To understand Biden's worries and the challenges faced by his party, let's take a look at the key issues in the 2022 midterms.

US MIDTERMS 2022: KEY ISSUES

The troubled economy, gun control, and abortion laws are the key issues that have been dominating America's poll scene. Not to forget, the Afghanistan chaos and the Covid crisis - both during Biden's tenure. It won't be wrong to say that the current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavourable election environment. We are not saying it, stats are!

As per the Monmouth University survey, 79% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track.

So, what are the key issues ahead of the November midterms?

According to a recent poll, 41 per cent of registered voters polled said economic issues, including wages and taxes, are their top set of issues. 13 per cent said security was their top issue, while another 11 per cent each named seniors and women's issues.

As per the Monmouth University survey, 26% of Americans say the economy is the top topic influencing their vote for Congress this November, while 25% say abortion is the big issue. The next-biggest issues are health care (16%), immigration (14%), gun control (9%), and taxes (8%).

Let's dive deep into these key issues to understand how much they matter and which party takes what stand.

COVID PANDEMIC

The Biden government has been facing widespread criticism over its handling of Covid-19 pandemic as the virus claimed one million lives in two years. Ever since its outbreak, the pandemic has driven US politics in innumerable ways and its presence was even felt during the March 2020 presidential elections.

ECONOMY

America's troubled economy has been a major issue, with inflation a worry for Americans. Government data released Friday put inflation at 8.6%, the highest in 40 years. Things like gas, food and used cars have seen prices skyrocket, causing a notable dent in people's wallets fueled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supply chain challenges related to the pandemic.

"I'm doing everything in my power to blunt Putin's price hike and bring down the price of gas and food," Biden said, but what does the public think?

According to a poll, 47 per cent of voters said they trust Republicans in Congress to handle the economy more than Democrats, who earned the trust of 36 per cent of respondents.

ABORTION LAWS

Abortion laws -- another key issue for American voters -- were in the news this time more than ever amid massive protests. Currently, abortion is legal in the US but abortion laws and restrictions vary by state. As for the two parties, while the Democrats are trying to bring a bill to invalidate a wide variety of abortion restrictions, the majority of Republicans do not support the ban or women's rights. But, what do Americans want? About six-in-ten U.S. adults (61%) say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 37% say it should be illegal in all or most cases, according to the survey, which was conducted in March.

In May, US Senate Democrats failed to pass a bill to make the right to abortion a federal law. Earlier, a leaked draft of a majority opinion of the US Supreme Court revealed the court's leaning towards undoing its 1973 landmark ruling (Roe v Wade) which gave women in the US a constitutional right to abortion.

Abortion has increased in prominence as a make-or-break issue for Democrats over the past four years, with 48% calling it "extremely important" that a candidate's views on abortion align with their own.

AFGHANISTAN CHAOS

After Joe Biden came to power in the United States in 2020, he announced that all American troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. America has spent more than USD 1 trillion in fighting and rebuilding in Afghanistan since the US-led invasion that ousted the Taliban after 2001 attacks.

"I know my decision will be criticized, but I would rather take all that criticism than pass this decision on to a future president," Biden said as he broke his silence on the troop pullout. As Biden had rightly anticipated, he faced massive backlash after he decided to pull out US troops from Afghanistan making space for the Taliban to seize control and overthrow the then government.

Many termed the troop withdrawal 'egregiously mishandled' while some termed it 'messy'. Trump too blamed Biden and Biden blamed the Afghan army for failing to protect their country and Trump for empowering the Taliban and leaving them "in the strongest position militarily since 2001." But the buck stopped at Biden, as he himself said.

In 2021, 43% of voters thought Biden has "a great deal" of responsibility for what happened as America ended its longest war.

CLIMATE POLICY

While Americans see local impacts from climate change, Trump remained in denial throughout his tenure and his policies are proof. Trump, in 2016, issued a gag order that banned the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Agriculture from "providing updates on social media or to reporters".

In 2020, he pulled out of Paris Agreement, an international accord that was adopted by nearly every nation in 2015 to address climate change. This was not unexpected as Trump, who has a history of climate change denial, had already announced his scepticism of climate change during his campaign in 2016.

Biden, on the other hand, made his contrasting stand a primary plank for his presidential campaign. The main climate target of the Biden administration is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the United States to net zero by 2050. Not to miss, Biden unveiled a $555 billion investment for the climate in a $1.75 trillion framework for Democrats' social-spending bill. There is a long list of appointments and decisions by Biden on climate change but are Americans satisfied?

Data for Progress, a left-leaning think tank, polled 1,326 likely voters in January and found that 64 per cent of Americans were in favour of the $555 billion in clean energy provisions.

GUN CONTROL & SECURITY

America has a history of mass shootings and gun control remains a major issue in a country where anyone above 18 years can purchase shotguns or rifles and ammunition. There has been a widespread demand for gun control in the country given the history of mass shootings.

The demand has been a pressing issue in the American poll scene for a long time and the recentmassacre of children at an elementary school in Texas has just added fresh urgency to the conversation. Amid the string of mass shootings across the US, an increasing number of Americans are concerned about security with many demanding a ban on assault weapons. Sensing the public sentiment, Biden and numerous Democrats in Congress have been pushing for the passage of stricter gun measures that Republicans have repeatedly blocked.

As per a survey, nearly 40% of Americans own a gun but does that mean they are against tighter laws? Not really. Nearly three-quarters of Americans think that gun violence is a big or moderately big problem, according to a survey last year by Pew Research Center. And a majority of Americans think that the epidemic of school shootings could be stopped with drastic changes in legislation, according to a poll this week by YouGov.

While Republicans support unrestricted gun ownership and gun rights, Democrats have been pushing for stricter gun measures.

WORRIES FOR BIDEN

Joe Biden's approval ratings hit a new low on Monday and touched 39.7 per cent, worse than his predecessor Donald Trump's ratings at this point in 2018, according to a new poll.

While the general public already seems unhappy with Biden, history, too, hints that the Democrats may lose. Why? Historically speaking, during midterms, the president's party often loses House seats, especially when the president is less popular and the economy is troubled.

Democrats lost the House in 2010 after two years of Barack Obama's presidency; Republicans lost the House after two years of Donald Trump. Not to forget, Biden is quite unpopular right now, with an approval rating stuck at less than 50% since last August.

Will Democrats manage to hold onto razor-thin House and Senate majorities in November's midterm elections? The odds seem to be stacked against Biden's party.